Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat:

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President Biden approved a highly classified nuclear strategy in March that shifts the U.S. deterrent focus to China, reflecting its rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. The revised strategy, known as the "Nuclear Employment Guidance," is updated every few years and emphasizes preparing the U.S. for potential nuclear challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea. This new approach considers the possibility of coordinated nuclear threats from these nations and seeks to deter them simultaneously. The strategy's approval highlights a significant change in the U.S. nuclear posture, which traditionally focused primarily on Russia. It reflects concerns about China's growing nuclear capabilities, which are projected to rival the U.S. and Russia within a decade, and the increasing partnership between China and Russia, including their joint military exercises.

This new guidance comes amid heightened global nuclear tensions, with Russia's aggressive posturing in Ukraine and North Korea's expanding nuclear arsenal, which now potentially threatens coordinated action with Moscow and Beijing. The revised strategy underscores a more volatile nuclear landscape that the next U.S. president will face. Despite its significance, the new strategy has not yet been a major topic in the presidential campaign debates, and President Biden has only briefly acknowledged it without going into detail. The shift reflects an acknowledgment of the evolving nuclear threats and the need to adapt American nuclear strategy to address the possibility of collaboration among nuclear-armed adversaries, while also navigating the complexities of international relations with China and Russia. - New York Times

 

The Middle East's Bizarre Waiting game: Ceasefire or Armageddon? 

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The Middle East is at a critical juncture, with the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza hanging in the balance amid ongoing indirect talks between Israel and Hamas. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on his ninth visit to the region since the conflict began, has emphasized the urgency of reaching a ceasefire, which he describes as "a decisive moment" and potentially "the last opportunity" to halt the violence. The proposed plan includes a six-week halt to hostilities, during which some hostages would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, followed by further negotiations on a comprehensive ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. However, this proposal faces significant hurdles: Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is wary of angering his far-right allies, who threaten to destabilize his government if a deal is made, and Hamas remains unconvinced, rejecting what it sees as new, unacceptable conditions in the American proposal.

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Complicating matters further, Iran's ambiguous stance adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation. While it has issued threats of direct attacks on Israel, it has yet to act, indicating a possible strategic delay as it weighs its options. Meanwhile, Hizbullah, Iran's ally, continues its sporadic attacks on Israel without escalating into full-scale conflict. Both Israel and Hamas are maneuvering for advantage, with Netanyahu concerned about maintaining Israeli control over key areas and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, operating from within Gaza's tunnels, remaining reluctant to release hostages without assurances of a full Israeli withdrawal. As the U.S. pushes for a resolution before its presidential election campaign heats up, the outcome remains uncertain, with the potential for either a breakthrough or further escalation. - Economist

 

How many hostages are still in Gaza since the Hamas attack on Israel?

What to know:

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Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, which resulted in the death of 1,200 people in Israel, an estimated 251 hostages were taken into Gaza. Currently, 71 hostages are believed to be alive, although the basis for Israel's estimates is not fully disclosed. A total of 116 hostages have been freed through various means, including a significant exchange deal in November 2023. The details regarding the hostages, including their identities, nationalities, and conditions, remain unclear, with conflicting reports about the deaths of some hostages during captivity. While most hostages are held by Hamas, others may be in the custody of different militant groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

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The number of hostages reported dead is at least 64, with Israel having recovered 30 bodies from Gaza. Hostages still believed to be in captivity include several foreign nationals and Israeli civilians, with ongoing uncertainty about their fate. Both Israel and Hamas have blamed each other for the deaths of certain hostages, but these claims remain unverifiable. The hostage crisis remains a significant point of tension in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, with both sides engaging in negotiations and military operations to resolve the situation. - Washington Post

 

It Isn’t Just Israel and Hamas. Israel and Egypt Have to Agree, Too:

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The Biden administration is working to finalize a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas but faces complications due to disagreements between Israel and Egypt. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Israeli troops stationed along the Gaza-Egypt border (the Philadelphi Corridor) to prevent Hamas smuggling, but Egypt opposes this, citing treaty violations and not wanting to appear complicit in an Israeli occupation of Gaza. This impasse is complicating ceasefire negotiations, with the U.S. attempting to mediate a compromise.

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Despite U.S. efforts to broker a deal, including meetings between top U.S., Israeli, and Egyptian officials, significant obstacles remain. Egypt demands no Israeli military presence along the border, while Israel insists on security measures against Hamas. This disagreement has strained Israel-Egypt relations, threatening regional stability and the potential success of a ceasefire. While there is hope for a resolution between Israel and Egypt, a compromise with Hamas remains uncertain. - Wall Street Journal 

 

As Ukraine Pushes Into Russia, Its Next Steps Are Unclear

Ukraine's recent incursion into western Russia has sparked discussions about creating a buffer zone, though the extent of their advance and the duration of their stay remain uncertain. Ukrainian forces have captured around 400 square miles, but U.S. officials doubt Ukraine's intention to hold the territory long-term, citing the absence of defensive fortifications like trenches and minefields. The Ukrainian strategy appears opportunistic, exploiting Russia's disorganized response and internal security rivalries. However, the more territory Ukraine captures, the more challenging it will be to defend with its limited troops.

While Ukraine's advance has surprised Russia, causing logistical and command issues, U.S. and British support, including satellite imagery, aims to help Ukraine monitor potential Russian counterattacks rather than push deeper into Russian territory. There are concerns that Ukraine's expanded front line could overstretch its forces, potentially weakening defenses in other critical areas like the Donbas region. Despite these risks, Ukraine's offensive has demonstrated improved military tactics, particularly in "combined arms" operations, which had been a weakness in previous campaigns. - New York Times

 

Ukraine Cites Modi Visit as the Fruit of an Emerging Diplomatic Push:

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Ukraine is claiming that its recent military incursion into Russia coincides with a strategic diplomatic push aimed at garnering broader international support for its negotiating position in potential peace talks. This diplomatic effort includes engaging with neutral or Russia-leaning nations, such as China and India. A notable example of this strategy is the planned visit to Kyiv by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which Ukrainian officials see as a significant diplomatic success. India, maintaining a careful balance between Ukraine and Russia, has not sought a mediating role but is open to conveying messages if requested. Mr. Modi's visit to Kyiv, especially following his earlier trip to Moscow and continued trade relations with Russia, underscores India's complex diplomatic stance amidst the ongoing conflict.

Ukraine's dual approach of military action and diplomatic engagement aims to strengthen its position in any future negotiations. The recent incursion into Russia has demonstrated Ukraine's ability to take the initiative and challenge the perceived stalemate in the war, while also highlighting the complexity of the conflict with multiple theaters of war. However, despite these efforts, there are no current peace talks scheduled, and Ukraine faces challenges on the ground and in maintaining international support. The visit by Mr. Modi is seen as a "big diplomatic breakthrough" for Ukraine, emphasizing its push to encourage neutral countries to adopt a more balanced stance in their relations with the warring nations. - New York Times

 

Venezuela’s Maduro Intensifies Repression:

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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is intensifying his crackdown on opposition and dissent following a controversial election victory on July 28, which opposition groups claim he lost in a landslide. His government has imprisoned around 2,400 critics on charges such as terrorism, using repressive tactics reminiscent of allied dictatorships like Cuba and Russia. Maduro's regime has resorted to labeling dissidents as "fascists," implementing new "anti-fascism" laws to target activists and human rights organizations, and encouraging citizens to report those who criticize the government via a state-run app. Security forces have been deployed to Caracas slums to deter protests, and a climate of fear pervades as many opposition members are forced into hiding or exile.

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International response has been critical, with the U.S. and other countries condemning the election results and threatening further sanctions against Venezuelan leaders. Despite mounting evidence of electoral fraud and the stifling of civil liberties, Maduro continues to consolidate power by leveraging control over state institutions, including the Supreme Court, which reaffirmed his election victory without providing evidence. As civil society faces increasing oppression, Venezuela's shift from a polarized democracy towards an outright dictatorship appears to be accelerating. - Wall Street Journal 

 

America Needs a Strategy for China:

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The current U.S. strategy toward China lacks a clear, long-term objective, contrasting with the Cold War approach to the Soviet Union, which had a well-defined end goal of containment. While there is bipartisan agreement on short-term measures, such as arming Taiwan and reducing economic dependence on China, there is little consensus on a broader strategic vision. The Biden administration's approach has shifted from a focus on constraining China to managing competition, prioritizing diplomacy and collaboration on global issues rather than containment. This strategy, however, may be insufficient given China’s aggressive pursuit of global hegemony and the ongoing threats it poses, including military aggression and cyberattacks.

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The absence of a clear, assertive strategy may embolden China and undermine U.S. interests. The lack of an overarching goal like containment could allow China to expand its influence unchecked, creating an environment ripe for conflict. Effective competition with China requires a strong, unified approach and clear communication to the American public about the stakes involved. This includes confronting China's attempts to undermine democratic institutions and advance its authoritarian model. Mobilizing public support and pursuing a more decisive strategy might be essential to countering China's ambitions and achieving a stable international order. - Wall Street Journal 

Author - Mr. Gallagher, a Journal contributor, is head of defense for Palantir Technologies and a distinguished fellow at the Hudson Institute. He represented Wisconsin's Eighth Congressional District (2017-24) and was chairman of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.

 

The Crumbling Foundations of American Strength:

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The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine highlights a shift in global power dynamics, demonstrating that traditional measures of military strength are not the sole indicators of a nation's power. Despite Russia's significant defense spending and military resources, Ukraine's unexpected resilience in the conflict is largely attributed to its highly educated population and rapid technological innovation, including the use of homemade drones and weapons. This shift from tangible resources to intangible assets like technology and knowledge signifies a broader transformation in how power is defined and projected.

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The United States faces significant challenges in maintaining its global influence as its traditional power bases erode. U.S. K–12 education and research universities are struggling with declining performance and funding, while the private sector increasingly drives technological advancements. The erosion of basic research funding and outdated immigration policies exacerbate these issues, leading to a loss of talent and innovation capacity. To counter these trends, the U.S. needs to revamp its approach to education, invest more heavily in basic research, and develop a national strategic infrastructure for technological innovation, ensuring that knowledge remains a cornerstone of its future strength. - Foreign Affairs

Author - AMY ZEGART is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, a Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Human-Centered AI Institute, and the author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence.

 

The Trouble With Allies:

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When dealing with friends and allies whose interests and policies diverge from those of the United States, there are six main strategies to consider. The most common approach is persuasion, aiming to convince the ally to align with U.S. preferences, though this often fails when the ally resists U.S. advice. Another strategy involves offering incentives to induce compliance; however, these incentives can be limited or ineffective. Sanctions are a third option, used to compel a change in behavior, but they can backfire, particularly when the benefits of maintaining the alliance outweigh the issues at hand. A fourth strategy is to ignore the disagreements, which has been used in the past, such as with Israel's nuclear program. While this can sometimes be pragmatic, it risks ignoring critical issues, as seen with Israeli settlement activities. A fifth tactic involves attempting regime change, which is often impractical and can lead to more problems than it solves, as demonstrated by the experience in South Vietnam. The sixth approach is for the U.S. to act independently by openly criticizing the ally’s policies and pursuing alternative strategies, which can help maintain the relationship while also mitigating any negative impacts. This method allows the U.S. to protect its interests and preserve valuable alliances despite disagreements. - Foreign Affairs

Author - RICHARD HAASS is President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Counselor at Centerview Partners, and the author of The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.